Ever since the launch of The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (a.k.a. the GERD) in 2011, the megaproject has been mired in controversy (Verhoeven, 2021). Whilst construction of the dam finished in July 2020 following a lengthy process (Kansara et al., 2021), many of the question marks over its potential impacts still loom. In this piece, I'll introduce the GERD as a technical entity and discuss the project's perception in Ethiopia.
Introducing the GERD
Ethiopia has been dubbed the 'water tower' of Africa owing to the extreme annual levels of precipitation in its highland territories (Verhoeven, 2021). The Ethiopian Highlands, through which the Upper Blue Nile meanders, provide 86% of the Nile's flow, with the majority of this water coming from the Blue Nile tributary (Swain, 2011).
Despite the country's vast hydroelectric potential, the IEA (2019) estimate that 55% of Ethiopians have no access to electricity. Here enters the GERD, which seeks to fill this energy void. It is projected to provide between 5.15 and 6.45GW of hydroelectric power (Eldardiry and Hossain, 2021), making it central to the wider strategy delineated by the Goals and Transformation Plan to increase clean energy generation capabilities to 10GW (Ethiopian Ministry of Finance, 2010). The reservoir formed by the dam, known as The Millennium Reservoir, will have an active storage capacity of 74BCM [billions of cubic meters] once filled (Eldardiry and Hossain, 2021), 1.5x the average annual flow rate of the Blue Nile [49BCM/annum].
The GERD itself is situated in the Upper Blue Nile Basin near the town of Guba, approximately 60km east of the Sudanese border and up to 750km from Addis Ababa (
El-Nashar and Elyamany, 2017). The Nile River Basin as a whole is split between 11 different countries, most of which will not directly feel the hydrological effects of the dam. Egypt and Sudan, however, will be disposed to the downstream impacts of the GERD and have both expressed their concerns, particularly vehemently in the case of the former.
What do Ethiopians think?
Jennifer Veilleux's 2013 study - 'The Human Security Dimensions of Dam
Development: The Grand Ethiopian
Renaissance Dam' - serves as a great point of reference here. Veilleux interviewed Ethiopians to capture national- and local-level attitudes and concerns towards the GERD.
National-level interviewees were predominantly preoccupied with the country's economic issues and still-pervasive poverty, and saw the GERD as a key tool to develop beyond these problems. Although concerned with intensified political disputes between Ethiopia and its downstream neighbours, most respondents considered the dam a source of national pride and a powerful expression of economic self-determination. Much of this pride is derived from the project's funding, with Ethiopians paying around 70% of the dam's near $5 billion cost (
Abdelhady et al., 2015). National-level respondents tended not to worry about localised impacts in the dam's surrounding area.
By contrast, local-level interviewees were aware of the impacts that the GERD would have upon their livelihoods, with the river forming the socio-cultural and economic backbone of their communities. Up to 20,000 locals - predominantly Gumuz, making a living from flood-recession farming, fishing or gold-panning - would have to be resettled into centralised villages, threatening a grim short-term economic outlook for the community without proper governmental support. A 5km no-go zone has been established around the dam to protect citizens from malaria, so it's probable that the locals' lives will never return to their pre-GERD state. Despite this, these respondents are optimistic about the future; the dam should deliver greater access to education and healthcare for their children and new permanent infrastructure. They are even amenable to the idea of resettlement, although this might stem from a lack of understanding of the GERD's riverine consequences.
What's next?
This blogpost is a brief foray into the minefield that surrounds the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Next, we will explore Egyptian and Sudanese attitudes towards the dam. We will also critically engage with the regional benefits and drawbacks of the GERD.
If you can't wait to learn more, here are some videos which summarise some of the key issues surrounding the project.
This brief foray into the complex world of GERD has been well presented, specifically bringing the perspective of the local level to bear in the discussion but also the implication the dam to local livelihood in Ethiopia. What is the implicaiton of Government resettlement in relation to the GERD among residents who once rely on the Nile basin within Ethiopia for livelihood?
ReplyDeleteHi again Clement, thanks for the feedback.
DeleteIn terms of resettlement, these citizens are being placed in 17 different villages. Ironically, electricity and water provision have so far proven to be big hurdles. As far as I can see, it will likely mean for them livelihood-insecurity. The villagers are offered financial support to aid in the short-term. Whether this compensates for the change of lifestyle that the villagers are having to adopt is another question, especially considering this might lead to a 'cultural loss' for the Gumuz people. I think the success of their resettlement depends on the long term futures that are possible for them, and this is a matter of providing the necessary amenities to the villagers, providing social services for them and their children, installing permanent infrastructure such as roads, permanent housing, schools, and insuring that Gumuz traditions are not completely lost.